At RM2, we track the forces shaping logistics and manufacturing because understanding what’s coming helps our customers make smarter decisions before problems reach their operations. One of the most significant shifts underway right now is a structural contraction in the U.S. trucking workforce, driven by federal policy changes that took effect this spring. Here is what is happening and why it matters to anyone moving freight.
A Policy Change with Real Workforce Consequences
A new FMCSA Final Rule took effect on March 16, 2026, that fundamentally changed who can hold a commercial driver’s license in the United States. The rule restricts non-domiciled CDLs to only those holding H-2A, H-2B, or E-2 visas, effectively barring DACA recipients, refugees, asylum seekers, and Temporary Protected Status holders from obtaining or renewing their licenses, even though many of these individuals have been legally working in trucking for years. Legal challenges are ongoing, but as of a May 2026 D.C. Circuit ruling, enforcement is moving forward.
The workforce impact is not abstract. This rule could remove up to 200,000 drivers from an industry that was already running short by 60,000 to 82,000 drivers entering the year, according to the American Trucking Associations. Foreign-born drivers represent nearly 18% of the entire U.S. trucking workforce, and because 92% of carriers operate ten trucks or fewer, it is the smaller regional fleets that are feeling the tightest pressure first.
What the Freight Market Is Already Telling Us
Markets quickly respond to labor shortages, and freight is no exception. The Outbound Tender Rejection Index tracked by FreightWaves SONAR climbed to 14.2% in March 2026, up from 8.5% a year earlier. That number matters even for shippers operating primarily on contracted lanes, because rising rejection rates are the leading indicator that carriers are struggling to cover their committed capacity.
When a carrier cannot staff a lane, they are contracted to serve; the shipper loses that coverage and absorbs the cost difference of securing freight outside their negotiated rate structure. For large manufacturers and consumer goods companies running high-volume, time-sensitive freight programs, that kind of unplanned cost exposure is exactly what contracted freight agreements are designed to prevent. The American Trucking Associations projects the driver gap will continue widening without meaningful changes to recruitment and retention at the industry level, which means the pressure on contracted capacity is not easing in the near term.
Why Pallet Performance Matters More in a Tight Freight Market
When carrier capacity shrinks, every load has to work harder. Shipments that are delayed at the dock due to damaged pallets, loads that get rejected because of inconsistent pallet dimensions, and pooling inefficiencies that create extra trips all carry a higher cost in a constrained freight environment than they would in a normal market.
Consistent, durable pallet performance is not a back-of-house consideration when freight is this tight. It is a direct factor in whether your loads move on time and at the rate you planned for. RM2’s composite pallets are engineered for dimensional consistency and load reliability precisely because supply chain disruptions have a way of exposing the weak points in your operation that favorable market conditions kept hidden.
Staying Ahead of It
The driver shortage is not a short-term fluctuation that will self-correct in a quarter or two. The policy changes driving it are structural; the demographic pressures in the trucking workforce were already building before this year, and freight demand is not softening. Supply chain leaders who are reviewing their freight strategies, carrier relationships, and load efficiency now are in a better position than those waiting for conditions to stabilize on their own.
RM2 will continue to publish updates on the market forces that affect our customers’ operations. If you want to talk through how your current pallet and pooling strategy holds up in a tighter freight environment, our team is ready for that conversation.
